Afghanistan, in Today's News 01.30.10

Afghanistan. From today's Wall Street Journal: "Thousands of U.S. forces are massing for a coming offensive in Helmand [Afghanistan], one of the country's most violent regions."

This offensive will go nowhere. Why? Because the Taliban is one or two steps ahead of the Obama war planners.

While the US concentrates forces in one area of Afghanistan, the Taliban is attacking other areas. They are taking Stan Musial's advice: "Hit Em Where They Ain't." A couple of weeks ago, the Taliban rocked Kabul, the capital, in an attack on the center of the city. Yesterday the Taliban attacked Laskar Gah and engaged the Afghan security forces in a day-long battle. Where they will attack next is unknown, but for sure it will not be Helmand.

In the meantime, the US, its allies and the Afghan government continue their efforts to buy off a section of the Taliban. A $500 million corruption fund is being built up for this purpose. But it is a good bet that a healthy portion of the loot will end up in pockets of officials.

The US is somewhat desperate to find a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan. Certainly the Obama war planners understand that this war will go on forever with no US victorious achievements. And in the meantime the American public and the left wing of his own party will grow impatient. Plus, Obama is under pressure to reduce spending while the war drains away money.

And thus the Obama people have sought to make back-door contact with the Taliban to reach a settlement. The US primarily went into Afghanistan to disrupt a training and organizing center for the enemies of Israel and its client state, the USA. The US would be willing to reach an agreement (with Israel's ok) if the Taliban would limit themselves to Afghanistan and cease efforts outside of Afghanistan's borders.

To this end, the United Nations' top representative to Afghanistan met with the Taliban recently to find a diplomatic solution. The results of this contact are unknown to the public right now.

But, it is reasonable to assume that the Taliban is in no mood to negotiate. Why should they? The momentum is on their side. The longer the US is involved, the greater will be the pressure to get out. And time will certainly not strengthen the Afghan government.

There is no easy way out for Obama.