The Taliban attack revealed that the Afghan government is completely isolated. An election at this time would only confirm the isolation. And so, Karzai and his American buddies have decided that it is the better part of wisdom for Karzai to simply and dictatorially avoid the elections, in the hope that things will be better eight months from now.
The delay won't work, but that is Obama's problem.
Simultaneously the Obama team has been trying to signal the Taliban that a deal is possible. Defense Secretary Robert Gates was quoted in Pakistan saying, "The Taliban, we recognize, are part of the political fabric of Afghanistan at this point. The question is whether they are prepared to play a legitimate role in the political fabric of Afghanistan going forward -- meaning participating in elections, meaning not assassinating local officials and killing families."
Translated: 'we used to say the Taliban was evil incarnate. Now we are willing to say they are a legitimate political entity and to stop the fighting if they agree to participate in the political process.'
The Taliban, of course, has no reason to make such a deal. They have the Afghan regime isolated and the US scrambling for face-saving. Why should they make a deal in those circumstances? They have victory in sight. Why not go for it?
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