The US is now involved in more than a war with a Islamist-oriented Taliban. It now has to deal with a war that is led by an established leader of Afghanistan, whose father is a hero for his fight against the Russians a couple of decades ago. Sirajuddin Haqqani has stepped forward to organize the assault on the Karzai regime.
This development means the US now has a generalized war on its hands. The isolation of the Karzai government is near complete and only capable of surviving by virtue of the US military strength. The Obama team now has to think out whether it wants to deepen the war or whether it can construct a means to get out. With the Israelis looking over Obama's shoulder the US administration faces some very difficult decisions.
The Wall Street Journal today says that Haqqani "has become ruthless in his own pursuit of an Afghanistan free from foreign influence." The WSJ quotes Haqqani, "We have managed to besiege the Afghan government."
The WSJ also reveals today that the current 'surge' of American troops "...is based on a strategy of applying sufficient pressure on some Taliban leaders that they will negotiate for terms acceptable to Washington." A careful reading of the news would indicate that Obama had tried unsuccessfully to negotiate before his surge decision. But, today's statement is the first time the Obama team has admitted the attempt at negotiations.
The entrance of Haqqani into the equation changes everything. No longer is the US dealing with some Taliban leaders they thought they could pressure. Now they have to deal with two parties with their own interests, and one of them is proving to be adamant in his determination to rid Afghanistan of US presence.
Moreover, Haqqani's interest is not limited to Afghanistan. His base is in Pakistan and (WSJ) "...has become arguably the most important Islamist militant haven in the region..."
And listen to this, "Mr. Haqqani has emerged as a powerbroker on both sides of the border. He has ties to almost every major faction in the confederation of groups operating under the Taliban umbrella. He has the strongest links to Al Qaeda of any major Taliban faction...While pledging allegiance to [Taliban chief] Mullah Omar, he operates independently, choosing his own targets and only loosely coordinating with the Taliban's supreme leadership." [!!!!] [Bracketed words added.]
The Karzai regime is hanging by a thread:
The Haqqani forces attacked at the center of power: "...Pashtunistan Square, which is ringed by the central bank, the entrance to the presidential palace, as well as several [key] ministries, a shopping center [that was destroyed] and a luxury hotel." [Bracketed comments added.]
Karzai would be well-advised to not turn his back on anyone: "...Mr. Haqqani has cultivated high-level double agents inside the Afghan government--including senior military and police officers, some of whom are suspected of having aided an assassination attempt on President Karzai..."
Karzai has no allies at all: "US officials have long alleged that Pakistan tolerates and even aids [!] Mr. Haqqani, so he can be used to maintain its influence in Afghanistan after an eventual American withdrawal." [Emphasis added.]
Karzai's government seems doomed. The US has few options. In the long run they can either escalate the war or get out. In the short run, Obama is putting pressure on Pakistan to crack down on Haqqani, a gambit that is sure to produce very little.
Stay tuned. Afghanistan moves closer and closer to being the determinant of peace and war in this world.
No comments:
Post a Comment