Afghanistan, in Today's News 01.18.10

Afghanistan. The media seems to think that there is little to say about Afghanistan since Obama made his troop decision. But, in actuality, significant events are occurring there which indicate Obama is headed for big trouble.

It was minimally reported today that the Taliban fought government forces in the streets of Kabul on Monday. From the AP, "Taliban militants launched a series of attacks Monday in the heart of the Afghan capital, prompting fierce gun-battles with Afghan troops after a suicide bomber blew himself up near the presidential palace.

"It was the latest attack showing the insurgents' ability to penetrate the heavily secured city, even near the presidential palace and government ministries. The attackers also targeted the Defense Ministry, the Justice Ministry and the luxury Serena Hotel, which is frequented by Westerners."

Attacks on the central organs of political power in a capital city usually occur near the end of a civil war. That the Taliban could pull off such an attack and maintain it for a day or so, indicates that the Afghan government's isolation is near complete. No amount of American troops can save the regime in such a situation. For example, several hundred thousand US troops could not prevent the overthrow of the South Vietnamese government.

It will take some time for all this to play out, but the handwriting is clearly on the wall for those who want to look. Certainly the brain-trust of the Obama administration is aware of the deteriorating conditions throughout Afghanistan. Their lack of response would tend to indicate that they have no viable options.

The US does have one option, and it is a scary one. One way to solve Afghanistan is to subsume that war into a larger war. Turning Pakistan and Afghanistan into one big war zone is one possibility. Another is the Israeli proposal to militarily attack Iran, which would precipitate a wider mideast war.

The Obama team is content for now to try to disrupt Iran through CIA intrigues and through supporting opposition elements, in the hope of an Iranian regime change. But, when that particular gambit turns up little, Obama will be faced with the Israeli alternative.

The media may give the impression that the world is basically stable, but the reality is that a big-time war is close at hand.