Friday, January 22, 2010

Afghanistan, in Today's News 01.22.10

Afghanistan. Boy, this gets better all the time!! The Afghan government is declaring that Monday's insurgent attack on the central government institutions was a 'victory' [!!] for the government.

The Wall Street Journal quotes the Afghan Army Chief of Staff, "What happened was a victory and a show of our strength." [!!!]

If the Afghan leaders really believe this, their delusion is of epic-proportions. The insurgents attacked the presidential palace, several key ministries, and the central area of Kabul, held their positions, and then retreated when the day ended. The attackers were within a hair's breadth of actually seizing the central Afghan government. And this is a victory for the Afghan government???

What probably really happened is this: the attacks caused such a drop in morale in the armed forces, the ministries, and the public that supports President Karzai, that extraordinary measures had to be taken to prop things back up again. And thus, the government beats its chest, makes strong-sounding statements, and issues a few medals to the army.

But, it won't work. The Afghan population knows full well that the Karzai government has no support and is only there because the United States is there. It is only a matter of time before this whole edifice crumbles.

*****

As the situation deteriorates the Obama adminstration is looking desperately for some kind of face-saving deal. Today's WSJ reveals that a significant effort is being made to split one of the influential regional leaders away from the Taliban. The US appears to be holding out all kinds of carrots to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar to seperately work out a settlement with the Karzai government.

This gambit, too, won't work. Hekmatyar has nothing to gain by such a settlement. He knows full well what the situation is. It is in his interests to wait for the Karzai regime to fall, and then work out his deal with the other insurgent forces.  

No comments:

Post a Comment