The United States effort is off to a flying start. The Afghan Independent Election Commission [the 'independent' presumably means independent of Karzai] announced that "2,000 to 25,000 [voting] stations won't open, most of them in restive eastern and southern Afghanistan, Mr. Karzai's main base of support." [!!!!!] The Wall Street Journal (today, page A14) reports, "U.N. representatives have been pushing for more stations to remain closed..."
Well, that's one way to vote Karzai out of office. Don't let his supporters vote!!
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The Obama strategy for Afghanistan is becoming clear. The 'strategic review' for Afghanistan was simply a means of gaining time so that the elements of the new United States policy could fall into place. Obama is shooting for a settlement in Afghanistan that will allow US troops to be reduced, even withdrawn. Thus Obama is choosing the 'declare victory and get out' option.
Obama needs to accomplish two things to make it work. First, he needs a deal with the Taliban that they will leave al Qaeda behind and join a reconciliation government. Backdoor diplomatic efforts are now occurring to see if it is possible. The current Pakistan offensive against the Taliban helps put pressure on the Taliban to reach a settlement.
Second, Obama needs to get Karzai out of the way. He must either go, or agree to join a power-sharing government that ideally would include a tamed Taliban. The next two weeks will tell the tale of this adventure.
This strategy is a gamble for Obama, especially because it puts the Taliban in the driver's seat. The more the Taliban holds out, the more likely will they be able to call the shots on a new government, within limits of course.
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