Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Afghanistan, in Today's News 10.05.09

Afghanistan. Is the Obama team actually considering declaring victory in Afghanistan and reducing the American presence? The reportage of the administration debate on strategy for Afghanistan indicates that a foundation for this alternative is being built.

Today's Wall Street Journal (page one): Some in the administration discussion advocate a "campaign consisting of missile strikes and covert action inside Pakistan, rather than a broader war against the Taliban, the radical Islamist movement that ruled Afghanistan for years and provided a haven to al Qaeda's Osama bin Laden. Their reasoning: The larger threat to America remains al Qaeda, not the Taliban; so, best not to get embroiled in a local war that history suggests may be unwinnable." [!!]

It sounds like the administration is considering making a deal with the Taliban: The US will leave them alone if they agree to keep al Qaeda out of the Afghanistan. (Afghan President Karzai take note: all of this is going on behind your back, and much of it has your back as the target.)

Would this new approach work? Probably not. To keep al Qaeda out of Afghanistan is virtually un-do-able given the terrain of the area. Plus the idea of missile strikes and covert action to control or defeat al Qaeda is nonsense.

But this approach would buy some time for Obama, which is what he has been trying to do all along. Obama wants Afghanistan on the back burner so he can deal with health care, financial reform, Iran, Israel, etc.

One difficulty: Israel will not like it. Anything that reduces American strength or presence in the Arab east will be seen by the Israelis as a big problem.

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