Obama feels obliged to go through this charade because he has lots and lots of opposition that must be neutralized. First is the military, who are pushing strongly for a mammoth increase in troops to Afghanistan. Second is his own party's left wing who are angry with Obama for not carrying out his campaign pledge to pull out of Afghanistan. Third are the 'allies' who are fatigued by trying to help the US in an effort that they could care less about. Fourth is the American public whose opposition to the war grows with each new poll of their opinions.
Obama has no policy options that will help him out of the mess. He desperately does not want to send in more troops because the resulting major war will get in the way of the 'reforms' he wants to accomplish. But, if he holds the line on troops, he risks the Taliban and al Qaeda scoring major victories and destabilizing what is left of the American-imposed government. Plus, his troops in Afghanistan will be somewhat short of being inspired. And a continuing US presence in Afghanistan will feed public opposition and disenchant the left wing of the Democrats.
Obama hopes to avoid sending in more troops by somehow reaching an understanding with the Taliban. His dream is to convince the Taliban to shut out Al Qaeda and then play a 'positive' role in building a new Afghan government. If agreed, then the US will basically leave the Taliban alone. This approach is really only making a virtue out of necessity, because so many Afghan provincial leaders have formed blocs with the Taliban to overthrow the present government.
The idea of driving a wedge between the Taliban and al Qaeda is so unreal that one wonders if Obama takes it seriously. He probably thinks that nothing ventured is nothing gained, so why not.
The approach that Obama wants to pursue would keep U.S. troop levels roughly constant while refocusing the broader American mission in Afghanistan on killing individual al Qaeda leaders rather than protecting the Afghan population.
If he follows through with this, the US will definitively lose the war. The Afghan population will fall away, if they haven't already. The Afghan government will surely fall if the US orients away from protecting the population. Trying to kill individual al Qaeda leaders might have a success or two, but it will never work and amounts only to busy-work. The Taliban will easily see that they are winning, and will have no inclination to make a deal with the invaders.
An honest review of war strategy would reveal that there are no options that serve Obama's interests. If he were smart he would cut and run, and minimize the loses. But there is no possibility of US withdrawal. The political price Obama would pay is too much for him.
*****
A humorous footnote: The Afghan troop decision is one of the most consequential for the Obama regime. To make sure he is covered politically, he has called in anyone connected with the war for the 'review'. So the question is, where is the person responsible for foreign policy, the Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton? She is nowhere to be found. Obama has completely isolated Clinton, and also he keeps her under control by having her in his administration. Say what you will about Obama, but in this case he has demonstrated some adroit political maneuvering, while Clinton does her best to seem important.
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