Tuesday, May 19, 2009

in Today's News 05.19.09

Netanyahu and Obama.  Both parties and the media say the meeting yesterday between Netanyahu and Obama was more or less routine and successful.  The Wall Street Journal buried its story on the meeting on page ten.

The reality is different.  The meeting itself went twice as long as scheduled.  This didn't happen because they were discussing the weather.  One can be sure that Netanyahu pushed aggressively on the issue of Iran.  Israel asserts that Iran is within months of producing enough fissile material to produce an atomic bomb. And therefore Israel believes the time for action against Iran is sooner rather than latter, and they feel quite strongly about it.

Obama, on the other hand, needs time so the United States can deal with the deteriorating situations in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  The last thing Obama needs right now is an additional major focus in foreign policy.  And so, the United States is pushing to put off any Iran action until the end of the year, with attempts at negotiations occupying the interim.

There is fundamental agreement between Israel and the United States on what to do about Iran.  But, there are big differences on timing.  We will probably never know whether Netanyahu acquiesced to Obama's position, but if he did it would be entirely out of character.

There is a dangerous game here, though, for the United States.  Israel has a history of getting its way.  If direct talks don't work, then it is certainly not beneath the Israelis to take some precipitate action that forces the hand of the United States.

You can be sure that the USA's intelligence network is working full-time on making sure that Israel doesn't do one of its surprises.

All the talk at the meeting about a Palestinian state, Israeli settlements, Arab peace initiatives, etc is pure fog.  All this has been discussed ad infinitum before. The wordage doesn't change and the reality doesn't change.  The United States is committed to support Israel no matter what.  The United States talk of negotiations etc is just a cover for Israel to do what it wants.

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