The question has to be asked because the media coverage is so different from the reality. The media seem to think the offensive in Marjah is one of the greatest battles in American military history. But is it really? What is this Marjah place anyway? Just what are the 'allies' conquering?
Marjah is an agricultural center of some 75,000 people spread over a wide area. The central buildings (the government office, schools) are mere shells and have not functioned for years. The irrigation canals have fallen into disuse with garbage and refuse filling them up. Most people have left the area to avoid the 'allies.'
The 'allies' have met only token resistance to their full-scale invasion of some 15,000 troops. (Does it really take a fully-armed force such as this plus helicopters to capture what is almost a ghost town?)
The Afghan government is even more of a joke. The Wall Street Journal revealed that President Karzai had to be awakened from a mid-day 'nap' to be briefed on the offensive on the eve of the invasion. Evidently the briefing was his first acquaintance with the action, which had been reported for weeks in the American press.
Known as the 'President of Kabul', Karzai gave his assent to the offensive, but covered his butt by saying there should be no civilian casualties. He then appointed someone to be the administer for the new Marjah. The only problem is the 'allies' know nothing of this figure, who has failed to appear in Marjah, despite the 'victory' there.
The US has no confidence in Karzai, having tried to oust him before and during the presidential elections in Afghanistan last year. The WSJ reported (2.19.10), "US officials have concluded that despite Mr. Karzai's failings as a leader, they have to find a way to make him lead if they [the 'allies'] are to succeed."
How about the Afghan army and police? WSJ (2.19.10): "The Afghan army and police are still works in progress, beset by desertions, and their members frequently picked off by the Taliban. The police are despised by many Afghans, who view them as corrupt and predatory." [!!!!!]
Meanwhile the 'allies' are announcing the capture or killing of a number of Taliban leaders, mostly in Pakistan. Whether these leaders are actually leaders is unknown. The Pakistanian forces could easily pick up anyone and claim he is a Taliban leader.
The US State Department sent an official to Marjah to see if the area was ready to be transformed by American plans and money. His conclusion: "I don't think we are there yet." (WSJ 2.20.10) Why did he conclude this? WSJ: the official found "the town so devastated by years of war and neglect that it was hard to imagine scores of civilians setting up shop there very soon."
The official is quoted upon seeing the ruins of the government center, "Is there a good part of town?" Further, "Where are the Afghans?"
To sum up: the US is conducting a major offensive to capture an area in ruins which even the Afghans have abandoned. The Afghan president appears to hardly care about the military action.
The question is, just what do the allies think they are capturing? They are seizing an area that the Taliban is perfectly willing to let them have. The Taliban only needs to do a few small-scale counterattacks to keep the 'allies' pinned down. Meanwhile the Taliban can concentrate its forces somewhere else, where the 'allies' are not.
One is almost forced to conclude that this offensive is just busy work to allow Obama time to try to get the Saudis to convince the Taliban to reach a settlement. There is no other road out for Obama. He cannot win militarily. The longer the conflict goes on, the more he will face opposition from the American public and from his own party. And the costs of the action continue to sky-rocket at a time when the public wants government costs and taxes reduced.
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