Obama thought he could convince the Taliban to forsake al Qaeda and join in some form of a reconcilliation government. He also thought he could move Afghan president Karzai out of the way to facilitate a settlement.
What happened? The Taliban said, "no thanks." And it would be silly to expect anything else from them when the tide is moving toward their objectives.
Second, Karzai proved to be much more difficult to get rid of than the Obama people thought. The US forced a run off election in the hope that his opponent could defeat him. That little maneuver came up empty today when the opponent dropped out of the election.
And so, Obama is left with nothing. Trying to make the situation look good, he telephoned Karzai and promised to work for a better Afghanistan.
Obama is back to his three alternatives: declare victory and get out, stand and fight, or send in lots of troops. He desperately wants to avoid sending in more troops, but the other options mean defeat relatively soon.
What Obama does next will be extremely interesting.
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