Israel and Iran, in Today's News 06.11.09

Israel and Iran. When we left off from this saga the United States had made clear to Israel that the US is not interested in a direct confrontation with Iran at this time. The Obama administration has enough to do to prevent Pakistan and 

Afghanistan from deteriorating further. Delay in taking on Iran, of course, doesn't hold much interest for Israel. They prefer now. And so, the US has to worry about Israel taking action on their own that would force the US into the confrontation.

Today's WSJ has an opinion piece by John R. Bolton of the American Enterprise Institute titled, "What if Israel Strikes Iran?". The article is mostly a discussion of possible retaliations by Iran in case of an Israeli attack. He then concludes by pointing out that the longer Israel waits to attack the more difficult Israel's predicament becomes.

"Although there is no profit now in complaining that Israel should have struck during the Bush years, the missed opportunity is palpable. For the remainder of Mr. Obama's term, uncertainty about his administration's support for Israel will continue to dog Israeli governments and complicate their calculations. Iran will see that as well, and play it for all it's worth. This is yet another reason why Israel's risks and dilemmas, difficult as they are, only increase with time."

Bolton and Israel need have no worries about US support. There is complete agreement on attacking Iran, just a disagreement on when. But, Bolton's article makes a case for action alone by Israel now. He writes to do otherwise only complicates Israel's situation. IOW, the longer Israel waits, the more difficult the eventual attack becomes.

This, of course, is a nightmare for Obama and company. They really dislike the possibility of their freedom of action being taking away by unilateral Israeli action. The American intelligence apparatus therefore is probably working overtime to try to detect any Israeli preparations.

It has happened before and could happen in this situation, that the Israeli preparations (which could included the usual blackmail, intimidation, and bribery) can sway the US to go along with the Israeli plans. So far the US is resisting, using a complaint about Israeli settlements to keep Israel on the defensive.

But, this situation is volatile and could change at any time.