Afghanistan, in Today's News 04.05.10

Afghanistan. Today's Wall Street Journal headline (pg A14): "Karzai Slams the West Again". 

The Journal writes that Karzai "accus[ed] the U.S. of interfering in Afghan affairs and saying the Taliban insurgency would become a legitimate resistance movement if the meddling doesn't stop."

The immediate background is Karzai's attempt to take over the Electoral Complaints Commission before the September parliamentary elections. The US resists this move. Karzai is fighting for his political life by trying to ensure the US doesn't affect the elections.

The US has been trying to get rid of Karzai for some time. They tried to oust him in the Presidential elections last year, but failed when the US designee decided not to pursue a run-off election. The US then let Karzai have the presidency, but has put unremitting pressure on him to become what the US wants or to get out of the way.

Karzai is becoming more and more militant as he realizes the extent to which the US is willing to go to remove him. He has even suggested that he would support the Taliban as a legitimate opposition. He is being courageous, but he faces a powerful opponent.

As for Obama: it is not a good sign for one's war policy when the ruler of the country your are supposedly helping attacks you. Obama's only real alternative is to step up efforts to remove Karzai. But such a step would have significant negative consequences among the Afghans.

 

Afghanistan, in Today's News 04.02.10

Afghanistan. One week after a visit by President Obama and about a month after the initiation by the United States of their much-heralded military offensive against the Taliban, Afghan President Karzai has shown his support by blasting the US, its allies and the United Nations. 

Today's Wall Street Journal, Karzai "...charged Western officials and embassies with fraud in last summer's presidential elections..." Karzai accused the US of bribery and death threats. He said the US efforts also included offers of cash and armored vehicles.

What prompted this outburst?

The United States has been trying to oust Karzai for some time. The US did just what Karzai alleges in an effort to remove his government, perhaps overthrow it, but at least force him into a coalition government in the last elections. The whole effort failed only because the US-sponsored candidate got cold feet and declined to participate in the run-off election.

WSJ: "Associates of Mr. Karzai say he was deeply wounded by what he considered Western treachery against him." The WSJ journal does not mention it, but it should be remarked that Senator Kerry played a key role in the treachery, when he flew to Afghanistan to pressure Karzai into accepting a run-off election.

Karzai took his time after the election, but when he felt he could, he issued a decree taking control of the Independent Election Commission, which had played the central role in trying to influence the election against Karzai.

Today's outburst occurred because parliamentary elections are scheduled for September and already Karzai has detected the manipulations of the US. In short, Karzai is fighting for his life. It doesn't worry him that his remarks might cause the US to undermine him. The US already is, and has been for some time.

One final note: Obama might be asked how his offensive is going? The Afghan government is providing very little support. Karzai, after much prodding of his staff, had to be awakened from a mid-day nap to hear of the plans for the offensive. It took a major effort to force Karzai to go to the initial military target, Marjah, to listen to the residents there. He also showed his support by appointing a thug to preside over the newly 'liberated' area. Karzai has also repeatedly accused the US of needless killing of civilians.

The media will never mention it, but Obama's efforts in Afghanistan are a little short of disastrous.

Afghanistan, in Today's News 03.06.10

Afghanistan.  Another triumph in Marjah!! Today's Wall Street Journal reports that the new Marjah administrator chosen by the Afghan government likely spent four years in a German prison for assault (beating his stepson).

"Behind closed doors, Western officials have been pressing Afghan officials to have [the administrator] removed from his post..."

And so, having conquered a rural, deserted village, the 'allies' can't even get the Afghan government to play along and appoint someone with standing. President Karzai seems to care little about the progress of the Marjah campaign.

Post Script, 03.09.10: The US and the 'allies' have backed off from efforts to have the administrator removed. Evidently, there was no one better to put in the post and President Karzai stuck to his position. And so, yet another embarassment for the 'allies', as their much ballyhooed Marjah campaign ends up putting a thug in power.

Afghanistan, in Today's News 02.22-27.10

Afghanistan. The media's pravda-like coverage of the US offensive in Marjah, Afghanistan continues. One would think that the US is completing a magnificent strategic and tactical victory. The reality is quite a bit different.

The latest achievement is the arrival in Marjah of the Afghan-appointed new administrator of the area. The media describes this event as a turning point, as a key event in eventual success. Take a look at the reality:

There is no government building in Marjah. Lack of security is such a problem that this new official spent his first night in a simple tent in the middle of a heavily armed security zone. His tent had a red rug with floral designs and a cot. He received military meals. Hail the conquering hero! [Sarcasm]

The rest of the bureaucracy (health, schools, utilities) that will be imposed on Marjah has yet to make it there. One can easily understand their fear.

The Wall Street Journal (February 24) described the situation with the Afghan police: "The biggest challenge for the government, Afghan officials acknowledge, will be to reverse the damage done by the national police who served in the town before the Taliban takeover. Locals uniformly [!] complain the police were brutal and corrupt." [!]

Another big victory was recored. Three (yes, three, count them) elders played up to the US forces, telling a tale of how they rebuffed the Taliban. Such confessions are suspect, of course, when there is a power around that has millions of dollars to distribute.

To win support, the US forces distributed food. "After the food distribution some 20 [yes, 20, again count them] men signed up with the Marines for $5-a-day jobs cleaning roads and irrigation canals." [Sarcasm added.]

The final stupendous [sarcasm] achievement has been the hoisting of the Afghan flag in Marjah. This was supposed to signify something, but who knows what. It occurred surrounded by a heavy 'allies' military presence at a empty building that is now called the government offices.

And so, the 'allies' great military action continues its merry way. In the meantime the Taliban struck again in the capital, Kabul, with a three-hour battle that was heard throughout the city. In the aftermath, a key hotel and two guesthouses were found to be severely damaged.

So, while the allies continue their make-believe in Marjah, the Taliban is massing its forces in Kabul, preparatory to driving the Karzai and his government out of power.

Is there anyone who does strategic thinking for the 'allies?'

Afghanistan, in Today's News 02.17-21.10

Afghanistan. It is difficult to figure out whom the US government is trying to fool with their offensive in Afghanistan. Is it themselves, the military, the Taliban, the Afghan government, the American public? Who?

The question has to be asked because the media coverage is so different from the reality. The media seem to think the offensive in Marjah is one of the greatest battles in American military history. But is it really? What is this Marjah place anyway? Just what are the 'allies' conquering?

Marjah is an agricultural center of some 75,000 people spread over a wide area. The central buildings (the government office, schools) are mere shells and have not functioned for years. The irrigation canals have fallen into disuse with garbage and refuse filling them up. Most people have left the area to avoid the 'allies.' 

The 'allies' have met only token resistance to their full-scale invasion of some 15,000 troops. (Does it really take a fully-armed force such as this plus helicopters to capture what is almost a ghost town?) 

The Afghan government is even more of a joke. The Wall Street Journal revealed that President Karzai had to be awakened from a mid-day 'nap' to be briefed on the offensive on the eve of the invasion. Evidently the briefing was his first acquaintance with the action, which had been reported for weeks in the American press. 

Known as the 'President of Kabul', Karzai gave his assent to the offensive, but covered his butt by saying there should be no civilian casualties. He then appointed someone to be the administer for the new Marjah. The only problem is the 'allies' know nothing of this figure, who has failed to appear in Marjah, despite the 'victory' there.

The US has no confidence in Karzai, having tried to oust him before and during the presidential elections in Afghanistan last year. The WSJ reported (2.19.10), "US officials have concluded that despite Mr. Karzai's failings as a leader, they have to find a way to make him lead if they [the 'allies'] are to succeed."

How about the Afghan army and police? WSJ (2.19.10): "The Afghan army and police are still works in progress, beset by desertions, and their members frequently picked off by the Taliban. The police are despised by many Afghans, who view them as corrupt and predatory." [!!!!!]

Meanwhile the 'allies' are announcing the capture or killing of a number of Taliban leaders, mostly in Pakistan. Whether these leaders are actually leaders is unknown. The Pakistanian forces could easily pick up anyone and claim he is a Taliban leader.

The US State Department sent an official to Marjah to see if the area was ready to be transformed by American plans and money. His conclusion: "I don't think we are there yet." (WSJ 2.20.10) Why did he conclude this? WSJ: the official found "the town so devastated by years of war and neglect that it was hard to imagine scores of civilians setting up shop there very soon."

The official is quoted upon seeing the ruins of the government center, "Is there a good part of town?"  Further, "Where are the Afghans?"

To sum up: the US is conducting a major offensive to capture an area in ruins which even the Afghans have abandoned. The Afghan president appears to hardly care about the military action.

The question is, just what do the allies think they are capturing? They are seizing an area that the Taliban is perfectly willing to let them have. The Taliban only needs to do a few small-scale counterattacks to keep the 'allies' pinned down. Meanwhile the Taliban can concentrate its forces somewhere else, where the 'allies' are not.

One is almost forced to conclude that this offensive is just busy work to allow Obama time to try to get the Saudis to convince the Taliban to reach a settlement. There is no other road out for Obama. He cannot win militarily. The longer the conflict goes on, the more he will face opposition from the American public and from his own party. And the costs of the action continue to sky-rocket at a time when the public wants government costs and taxes reduced. 

Afghanistan, in Today's News 02.09.10

Afghanistan. Afghan President Karzai strikes one as the type who will say anything, regardless of the truthfulness, to please those who have authority over him. Everyone probably knows this type from work. He or she is the one, when questioned by their responsibility, who will quickly think up some seemingly rational answer that has no basis in reality, just to get rid of the questioner.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Karzai is now bringing up the idea of a draft in Afghanistan. The WSJ, of course, gives this idea credence. But, come on. This is a country where the central government is isolated and controls only the capital, Kabul, and maybe a few other locations. This is a country that just arrested a colonel for (WSJ) "helping to store, distribute and install explosives around Mahmud-Raqi, the capital of Kapisa province." The WSJ further reports that the colonel was involved in bribery and corruption involving road projects in the province, and that others in the Kapisa government were suspected of the same.

Karzai thinks he can have a draft in such a situation!

But it is all a ruse. Karzai is just trying to say the right things. He said that with a draft within five years the Afghan forces would be sufficient to guarantee that the country's security would "no longer [be] a burden of the shoulders of the international community."

And so, that means the international community can withdraw in five years, right? Wrong. (WSJ) "Still, he said foreign troop would be needed to help battle hard-core militants because the 'war on terrorism...is an issue separate from this security arrangement in Afghanistan.'"

No wonder Karzai is President with such an ability to speak out of both sides of his mouth. On the one hand, he seeks to please the United States by appearing to be doing something (the draft proposal) to secure the country. But, on the other hand, the US and others will have to stay because the issue of the war on terrorism is international. Bottom line: you guys in the US will have to carry the burden of the war.

What a guy!!

************

Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top US general in Afghanistan, (WSJ) "told reporters that the success of a coming offensive in the Taliban-infested south hinges on whether troops and civilian aid workers can quickly get schools, hospitals and public services running." 

Aside from being a convenient CYA statement, his remarks are a bit peculiar. Does he mean that the existing schools, hospitals and public services will be knocked out in the coming offensive? Local inhabitants are always receptive to having their native institutions shut down. (Sarcasm.) 

If McChystal means what he says, the coming offensive will drive the population right into the arms of the Taliban, if they aren't there already.

********

The Wall Street Journal has a 23-inch article with a huge picture today praising the efforts of the US and Afghanistan to enlist veteran officers of the anti-Soviet battles of the 1980's. This is an interesting action because the rest of the officers of the Afghan army are the very ones who fought the anti-Soviet insurgents!

Somehow the US thinks this will work. After all, the US brought them together them together for a "senior Afghan National Army command course," taught by the US and the French. Now surely everyone knows that the wisdom of the Americans and the French can overcome years of these officers trying to kill each other and overcome centuries of tribal conflict between Pastuns and Tajiks. (Sarcasm.)

The US is in a dream world that will never settle or win this war.

Afghanistan, in Today's News 01.29.10

Afghanistan. The London conference on wishful thinking and excursions into never-never-land concluded yesterday. Afghan President Karzai and representatives of 65 other countries have been meeting to discuss and determine the future of Afghanistan. It is as if these people are living on another planet or are from another dimension.

The conference communique stated that, according to the Wall Street Journal, "the Afghans will take the lead in securing the most volatile parts of the country within three years, with the first provinces potentially passing to Afghan control by the end of this year." Karzai even said in his address to the conference that "Afghan forces will take control of physical security of the whole country within five years."

All this regarding a government that was almost overthrown a couple of weeks ago. All this regarding a government that controls nothing in the country except the capital, Kabul. All this regarding a President the US tried to get rid of just a few months ago. All this regarding a President, some of whose military advisors aided an assassination attempt against him. All this regarding an American strategy for Afghanistan that is designed to simply hold the fort rather than trying to defeat the Taliban.

In other words, the plans of Karzai and the conference have no possibility of success or even minimal achievement. 

Further details of a now crowned "Peace and Reintegration Trust Fund" were also revealed. Japan, the United Kingdom and others are planning to raise $500 million to reach out to militants to give them "a way back into mainstream life on the condition they renounce violence." 

Karzai also promised to make a "key focus" the fighting of corruption. It is a well-known strategy to combat corruption by having $500 million laying around in a poor country. [Sarcasm.]

Karzai told the meeting he intends to invite the Taliban leaders to a tribal conference. This ought to be good. Not only will the Taliban not attend, but the conference itself will be another of those CIA-type front organizations.

In short, Afghanistan, from the point of view of Obama and friends, is going you-know-where in a hand-basket. And yet Obama and his allies engage in the most delirious of delusions about how the situation is steadily improving.

Just wait for the Taliban's next show of force to see all these grandiose plans go up in smoke.

On a humorous note, Obama let Hillary Clinton feel important by addressing the conference. Most of her remarks were just a tired reiteration of Obama-talk. Then she took it upon herself to tell Afghanistan how it should run itself. "Afghan women must not be viewed [by whom?] simply as victims who need to be sheltered. They must be respected and valued as leaders -- a treasury of untapped talent that Afghan society needs." Other cultures are always receptive to being told they "must" do something. [Sarcasm.]

Afghanistan, in Today's News 01.28.10

Afghanistan. American fruitless efforts to snooker all or a part of the Taliban continue.

An international conference of some 60 foreign ministers is meeting now in London to discuss the eventual withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. To reach that time, this conference is usurping the independence of Afghanistan and telling them how to build their security forces, army, etc.

But, the significant revelation at the conference is the existence of a fund whose donors include the US, UK and Japan, the purpose of which is to 'help' former Taliban members to integrate into the Afghan government's version of reality. The fund is Japan-led and will be run by the Afghans. Richard Holbrooke, the US special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, plugged the fund to the conference.

Comments:

1. If the 'allies' really believe that a fund like this is going to have an appreciable effect on the Taliban, they are gravely mistaken. Individual members of the Taliban can see that the Taliban will ultimately win the battle with the Karzai government, probably sooner than later. They have no incentive to accept a bribe from the US, Japan et al. In fact, accepting the money would only stigmatize the recipient.

2. Does anyone think that a fund run by the Afghan government will remain corruption-free? The great likelihood is that the big bucks will find their way into the pockets of any Afghan leader powerful enough to take the money. And there are plenty of those leaders.

3. The conference itself is kind of a joke. The US can only persuade a few countries to participate militarily in the Afghan war. So, to appease American critics and to get some of the financial burden off its shoulders, the US has convened these 60 nations. The conference is supposed to give the impression that Afghan policy is decided by many, many countries. This is a joke. The US will do the deciding. The fact that Hillary Clinton is at the conference gives some indication how little this conference has to do with the war planning in Washington.

Afghanistan, in Today's News 01.25.10

Afghanistan. About a week after the Taliban waged a day-long battle in the center of power in Kabul, the Afghan government has announced that the parliamentary elections will be postponed until September. Is there a connection between the two events? You betcha. 

The Taliban attack revealed that the Afghan government is completely isolated. An election at this time would only confirm the isolation. And so, Karzai and his American buddies have decided that it is the better part of wisdom for Karzai to simply and dictatorially avoid the elections, in the hope that things will be better eight months from now.

The delay won't work, but that is Obama's problem.

Simultaneously the Obama team has been trying to signal the Taliban that a deal is possible. Defense Secretary Robert Gates was quoted in Pakistan saying, "The Taliban, we recognize, are part of the political fabric of Afghanistan at this point. The question is whether they are prepared to play a legitimate role in the political fabric of Afghanistan going forward -- meaning participating in elections, meaning not assassinating local officials and killing families."

Translated: 'we used to say the Taliban was evil incarnate. Now we are willing to say they are a legitimate political entity and to stop the fighting if they agree to participate in the political process.'

The Taliban, of course, has no reason to make such a deal. They have the Afghan regime isolated and the US scrambling for face-saving. Why should they make a deal in those circumstances? They have victory in sight. Why not go for it?

Afghanistan, in Today's News 01.22.10

Afghanistan. Boy, this gets better all the time!! The Afghan government is declaring that Monday's insurgent attack on the central government institutions was a 'victory' [!!] for the government.

The Wall Street Journal quotes the Afghan Army Chief of Staff, "What happened was a victory and a show of our strength." [!!!]

If the Afghan leaders really believe this, their delusion is of epic-proportions. The insurgents attacked the presidential palace, several key ministries, and the central area of Kabul, held their positions, and then retreated when the day ended. The attackers were within a hair's breadth of actually seizing the central Afghan government. And this is a victory for the Afghan government???

What probably really happened is this: the attacks caused such a drop in morale in the armed forces, the ministries, and the public that supports President Karzai, that extraordinary measures had to be taken to prop things back up again. And thus, the government beats its chest, makes strong-sounding statements, and issues a few medals to the army.

But, it won't work. The Afghan population knows full well that the Karzai government has no support and is only there because the United States is there. It is only a matter of time before this whole edifice crumbles.

*****

As the situation deteriorates the Obama adminstration is looking desperately for some kind of face-saving deal. Today's WSJ reveals that a significant effort is being made to split one of the influential regional leaders away from the Taliban. The US appears to be holding out all kinds of carrots to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar to seperately work out a settlement with the Karzai government.

This gambit, too, won't work. Hekmatyar has nothing to gain by such a settlement. He knows full well what the situation is. It is in his interests to wait for the Karzai regime to fall, and then work out his deal with the other insurgent forces.  

Afghanistan, in Today's News 01.20.10

Afghanistan. The Obama brain trust is beginning to come to grips with the seriousness of the situation they now face in Afghanistan after the all-day battle in Kabul on Monday.

The US is now involved in more than a war with a Islamist-oriented Taliban. It now has to deal with a war that is led by an established leader of Afghanistan, whose father is a hero for his fight against the Russians a couple of decades ago. Sirajuddin Haqqani has stepped forward to organize the assault on the Karzai regime.

This development means the US now has a generalized war on its hands. The isolation of the Karzai government is near complete and only capable of surviving by virtue of the US military strength. The Obama team now has to think out whether it wants to deepen the war or whether it can construct a means to get out. With the Israelis looking over Obama's shoulder the US administration faces some very difficult decisions.

The Wall Street Journal today says that Haqqani "has become ruthless in his own pursuit of an Afghanistan free from foreign influence." The WSJ quotes Haqqani, "We have managed to besiege the Afghan government."

The WSJ also reveals today that the current 'surge' of American troops "...is based on a strategy of applying sufficient pressure on some Taliban leaders that they will negotiate for terms acceptable to Washington." A careful reading of the news would indicate that Obama had tried unsuccessfully to negotiate before his surge decision. But, today's statement is the first time the Obama team has admitted the attempt at negotiations.

The entrance of Haqqani into the equation changes everything. No longer is the US dealing with some Taliban leaders they thought they could pressure. Now they have to deal with two parties with their own interests, and one of them is proving to be adamant in his determination to rid Afghanistan of US presence.

Moreover, Haqqani's interest is not limited to Afghanistan. His base is in Pakistan and (WSJ) "...has become arguably the most important Islamist militant haven in the region..." 

And listen to this, "Mr. Haqqani has emerged as a powerbroker on both sides of the border. He has ties to almost every major faction in the confederation of groups operating under the Taliban umbrella. He has the strongest links to Al Qaeda of any major Taliban faction...While pledging allegiance to [Taliban chief] Mullah Omar, he operates independently, choosing his own targets and only loosely coordinating with the Taliban's supreme leadership." [!!!!] [Bracketed words added.]

The Karzai regime is hanging by a thread:

The Haqqani forces attacked at the center of power: "...Pashtunistan Square, which is ringed by the central bank, the entrance to the presidential palace, as well as several [key] ministries, a shopping center [that was destroyed] and a luxury hotel." [Bracketed comments added.]

Karzai would be well-advised to not turn his back on anyone: "...Mr. Haqqani has cultivated high-level double agents inside the Afghan government--including senior military and police officers, some of whom are suspected of having aided an assassination attempt on President Karzai..."

Karzai has no allies at all: "US officials have long alleged that Pakistan tolerates and even aids [!] Mr. Haqqani, so he can be used to maintain its influence in Afghanistan after an eventual American withdrawal." [Emphasis added.]

Karzai's government seems doomed. The US has few options. In the long run they can either escalate the war or get out. In the short run, Obama is putting pressure on Pakistan to crack down on Haqqani, a gambit that is sure to produce very little.

Stay tuned. Afghanistan moves closer and closer to being the determinant of peace and war in this world.

Afghanistan, in Today's News 01.19.10

Afghanistan. A bit more news appeared today on the Taliban's attack on the points of power in Kabul. It is clear that the all-day battle was considerably more significant than originally reported or that the reporters are willing to admit.

From today's Wall Street Journal: "The Taliban launched a coordinated attack on the Afghan capital Monday, paralyzing the city for most of the day as militants set off explosions, took over buildings and attempted to disrupt the swearing-in of new cabinet members." The WSJ neglects to mention that the buildings attacked were key government ministries as well as a shopping mall, which was burnt down.

"The assault, claimed by the Taliban and believed to be carried out by members of an allied militant network led by Sirajuddin Haqqani was among the most spectacular in Kabul in recent years...aiming to to embarrass President Hamid Karzai's administration and to showcase the insurgency's reach."

Well, yes, they were trying to 'embarrass' Karzai...by challenging his hold on political power in the country!! The fact that the attack included non-Taliban forces indicates that the Karzai regime is isolated. 

The next insurgents' attack may take over and hold government buildings, which would obviously be the end of Karzai's government. And it would force the US to make some uncomfortable decisions.

It is also interesting that the Taliban attack points out the weakness of the Obama plan. "President Barack Obama is sending some 30,000 additional American troops to Afghanistan this year, mostly to Taliban strongholds in the south and east of the country. Few of these troops will be heading to Kabul..."

It's almost as if the Taliban is thinking, 'OK, if you are going to concentrate in the south and east, then we will concentrate in Kabul, which is actually a help because the government can be toppled in Kabul.'

Obama will be facing some big decisions on Afghanistan before long.

Afghanistan, in Today's News 12.02.09

Afghanistan. "Obama Bets Big on Troop Surge," Wall Street Journal lead headline on page one today.

Well, he tried everything. He tried to get rid of Afghanistan President Karzai. He tried elections in Afghanistan. He tried to snooker the Taliban. He tried to ignore the problem. He threw the issue to his advisors. He tried to get the "allies" to take more of the burden. He hoped for a miracle. He procrastinated and procrastinated. 

In the end, nothing worked. And Obama is right back where he started, except the situation has worsened. He faces an Afghanistan government that is at best less-than-friendly. The Afghan government has little-to-no support in the Afghan public. The Taliban has gained strength to a surprising extent to the point where they are actually challenging the government in significant military battles. He has a split in his own political party, with the left, who were critical to his election, alienated. The 'allies' are none too fond of the predicament Obama puts them in when he requests more aid and troops. And the American public is war-weary.

And so, Obama is forced after all to follow the advice of the military, toning it down a bit and setting an impossible deadline. He says he will send in 30,000 more troops and begin withdrawing them in 18 months.

Obama knows full-well that 30,000 troops will do nothing to change things. Today's news' coverage says little about the military strategy to be followed. But, a week or so ago, the reportage was that the reinforcements will come with a new strategy: to isolate Kandahar and to secure the roads. This is not a strategy to pursue the war and try to win. It is a strategy to hopefully keep Afghanistan from blowing up in Obama's face.

And why 18 months from now to begin withdrawing? Eighteen months is getting close to the next election. If Obama thinks that withdrawing a few troops before the election will help his re-election prospects, he is seriously deluded.

Afghanistan will not go away. It will continue to haunt the Obama administration. This is so because the war is a proxy war, not in the interests of America foreign policy. The war is fought because Israel wants it fought. Israel's interest is for the US to keep Israel's enemies bottled up. American forces being bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq suits Israel just fine. 

Israel's ultimate plan for Afghanistan lies through Iran. The idea is that Afghanistan will take care of itself when Iran is chopped off at the knees. In other words Israel is looking to a major mideast war to establish Israel as the predominant power that all other countries in the area will be beholden to.

Obama and his zionist advisors and backers are not necessarily opposed to this strategy. It's just that the timing is off. A war with Iran right now would get in the way of all the other Obama plans, not the least of which is to make Obama the world's most influential politician, which then would make the war on Iran easier to pull off.

Obama is caught in a dilemma in Afghanistan. He is stuck where he is until some bigger pieces of the world strategy fall into place. It is not likely that those pieces will occur soon. And so, Obama tries to hang on in Afghanistan hoping that Afghanistan won't fall apart.

Needless to say Afghanistan is at the center of world politics. It goes right to the heart of all the current issues, because Israel's need to dominate is so well demonstrated. 

The Church leaders, however, seem sublimely oblivious to the whole thing. They say very little about it, and show no indication that they have any understanding of what is involved. There was a time when the Church leaders were on top of what is happening in the world and endeavored to keep the faithful informed. Now, it seems that the Church leaders are too interested in being accepted by the media and others to have any desire to learn about the objectives of the world powers.

Afghanistan, in Today's News 11.09.09

Afghanistan. President Obama resolutely refuses to commit to a course of action in Afghanistan. He has adopted this stance because he has no viable alternative that doesn't result in defeat.

But the longer he waits to make a decision, the worse the consequences will be.

******

The Obama people lost in their attempt to get rid of Afghan President Karzai in the recent elections. But that doesn't stop them from continuing to try. Articles in the media have steadily appeared 'reporting' on the corruption under Karzai. Even the Brits got into the act with a major denunciation of the corruption and a threat to withdraw support.

Afghanistan, in Today's News 11.02.09

Afghanistan. Obama's gambit to solve his problem in Afghanistan has resulted in zip. Now he is right back to the alternatives he has been trying to avoid for months.

Obama thought he could convince the Taliban to forsake al Qaeda and join in some form of a reconcilliation government. He also thought he could move Afghan president Karzai out of the way to facilitate a settlement.

What happened? The Taliban said, "no thanks." And it would be silly to expect anything else from them when the tide is moving toward their objectives.

Second, Karzai proved to be much more difficult to get rid of than the Obama people thought. The US forced a run off election in the hope that his opponent could defeat him. That little maneuver came up empty today when the opponent dropped out of the election. 

And so, Obama is left with nothing. Trying to make the situation look good, he telephoned Karzai and promised to work for a better Afghanistan.

Obama is back to his three alternatives: declare victory and get out, stand and fight, or send in lots of troops. He desperately wants to avoid sending in more troops, but the other options mean defeat relatively soon.

What Obama does next will be extremely interesting.

Afghanistan, in Today's News 10.23.09

Afghanistan. The United States now has two weeks to undermine Afghan President Karzai before the second round of national voting. The goal is to so discredit Karzai that he loses the election. Baring that, the hope is to weaken him so much that he is forced to share power with someone who is more devoted to American war aims. 

The United States effort is off to a flying start. The Afghan Independent Election Commission [the 'independent' presumably means independent of Karzai] announced that "2,000 to 25,000 [voting] stations won't open, most of them in restive eastern and southern Afghanistan, Mr. Karzai's main base of support." [!!!!!] The Wall Street Journal (today, page A14) reports, "U.N. representatives have been pushing for more stations to remain closed..."

Well, that's one way to vote Karzai out of office. Don't let his supporters vote!!

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The Obama strategy for Afghanistan is becoming clear. The 'strategic review' for Afghanistan was simply a means of gaining time so that the elements of the new United States policy could fall into place. Obama is shooting for a settlement in Afghanistan that will allow US troops to be reduced, even withdrawn. Thus Obama is choosing the 'declare victory and get out' option.

Obama needs to accomplish two things to make it work. First, he needs a deal with the Taliban that they will leave al Qaeda behind and join a reconciliation government. Backdoor diplomatic efforts are now occurring to see if it is possible. The current Pakistan offensive against the Taliban helps put pressure on the Taliban to reach a settlement.

Second, Obama needs to get Karzai out of the way. He must either go, or agree to join a power-sharing government that ideally would include a tamed Taliban. The next two weeks will tell the tale of this adventure.

This strategy is a gamble for Obama, especially because it puts the Taliban in the driver's seat. The more the Taliban holds out, the more likely will they be able to call the shots on a new government, within limits of course.

Afghanistan, in Today's News 10.22.09

Afghanistan. To develop a better understanding of what is really going on behind the scenes between the United States and Pakistan President Karzai, read the following from a paragraph in Karl Rove's column today.

"...Mr. Obama refused to take a call from Afghan President Karzai after his recent disputed election, a confidante to Mr. Karzai told me. That same confidante also said that the Afghan president was dismayed when political strategist James Carville, who has close ties to both Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and [White House chief of staff] Mr. Emmanuel, became an advisor to Ashraf Ghani, who ran against Mr. Karzai. Mr. Karzai took that as a sign that Mr. Obama was encouraging opposition to him. And, finally, administration figures have raised doubts about the White House's confidence in Afghanistan's government. In his interview on CNN on Sunday, for example, Mr. Emmanuel questioned 'whether, in fact, there's an Afghan partner."

Afghanistan, in Today's News 10.21.09

Afghanistan. The United States effort to force Afghan President Karzai into a run-off election has succeeded. How did they do it? Therein lies a tale.

First some background. The Afghan regime has become more and more isolated as regional leaders form blocs with the Taliban to overthrow the government. The US recently decided that Karzai could no longer govern effectively in carrying out the US interests. He had to go, so that a new regime could try to turn the situation around. The problem, of course, is nowadays the US can't just go in and dump someone they don't like. Now they have to go through the motions of replacing Karzai 'democratically.' All this has added importance now that the Obama regime is looking to settle the war and still protect Obama's reputation. To this end, all manner of backdoor negotiations are occurring between the Taliban and the US. The US hope is that a new Afghan regime can work out a compromise with the Taliban to the exclusion of al Qaeda.

The US decided that the best way of disposing of Karzai was through manipulating the results of the recent elections. The media began beating the drums about corruption in the Afghan elections. Based on the media's claims the US brought in the UN-led Electoral Complaints Commission to examine the alleged fraud.

Election results showed Karzai with a 54.6% victory, enough to claim the presidency. When the commission finished its 'work' Karzai's total was 48.3%, only enough for a run-off election, which just happened to be what the US wanted.

When Karzai recognized the job being done on him, he and his supporters refused to support the commission results. Enter Senator John Kerry, he of nimble tongue.

Kerry, at Obama's request, flew to Afghanistan and went on a five-day marathon 'discussion' with Karzai. Karzai began to bend but said if the new commission results were accepted, his authority would be undermined.

What to do, what to do? Simple, the results of the election were simply changed! An agreement was reached that Karzai would lose a majority by three tenths of one percent. No one even bothers to try to justify the new result as based on some kind of count. And thus Karzai is moderately happy about his authority, and the US obtains the run-off election.

And so another outrageous manipulation of a nation's internal affairs is performed by the US. And most amazing of all, it is all done in the name of freedom and democracy.

The election will occur in a couple of weeks. The US will now go into high gear to undercut Karzai.

Afghanistan, in Today's News 10.16.09

Afghanistan. Afghan President Karzai better scramble if he wants to avoid the Ken-Lewis-treatment, or worse, from the United States. The weeks' long investigation of corruption in the Afghan presidential election is nothing more than an effort by the United States to undermine and get rid of Karzai.

After working the fraud-in-the-elections gambit for weeks, the US finally is close to establishing the need for a run-off election between Karzai and the former foreign minister Abdullah. The US polling apparatus shows that Karzai would probably win, but never underestimate the effort of the war chiefs. When they get their runoff, they will then turn their energy to character-assassination of Karzai.

Karzai had better move fast if he doesn't want to join the long list of politicians who displeased the cryptocracy and were removed in one manner or another.

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"Sen. Levin Crafts Afghan Compromise." This is a headline in today's Wall Street Journal (page A6). This article purports to convince us that Senator Levin, the Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has entered the great discussion of Afghan policy by proposing to solve the dilemma of more troops versus a 'counter-terror' push with fewer troops. Levin's compromise: train the Afghan army faster!!

Now there is a new idea!!!! This stratagem was a complete disaster in Vietnam, where the South Vietnamese army, built up fast by the US, was incapable of defending the regime, and ultimately led to the collapse of the war effort. In Iraq, the new idea was implemented and resulted in no decrease in US troops. This army too will probably collapse when the Americans reduce their armed influence.

It seems this 'new' approach is what the war mongers come up with when they realize that they cannot win a war. Just train the indigenous army quickly and hope for the best. In the long run this strategy provides cover for the war mongers when the war is lost. 'We didn't lose, it was the Afghan-Iraq-South Vietnamese army who lost the war.'